A Statistical Look At Whether Man United Should Sign Baines

July 3, 2012
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Patrice Evra is now 31 and United are reportedly on the hunt for a long term replacement, as well as to provide him with some competition. Having missed out on Jordi Alba, their main target appears to be Everton’s Leighton Baines. Evra’s form certainly dipped to a degree last season with him being at fault for a number of goals. In addition to this, he lost his place in the France team to Clichy due to this perceived dip in form.

Statistics

Tackles Interceptions Clearances Shots Blocked ‘Dribbled’ Fouls Assists Goals
Evra 2.8 1.4 4.6 0.2 0.8 1 4 0
Baines 1.7 2 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 2 4
Clichy 2.3 2.7 3.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 4 0
Cole 2.5 1.6 2 0.3 0,9 1 6 0

A look at the statistics alone suggests that Evra had an excellent season. In fact, he was whoscored.com’s left back of the season in the Premier League. However the stats alone can be somewhat misleading as they are dependent on styles of play. For example Ashley Cole had 3.6 clearances per game when playing for England as well as only being dribbled 0.3 times, probably due to how deep England defended, which is in direct contrast to his club form for Chelsea. The stats are still a good loose framework. Cole and Evra were dribbled the highest amount.

There is not a great deal between the full-backs. Observationally, Evra and Cole have certainly made a few more errors this season than we’d expect of them. Cole was England’s number one full-back and despite having a worse domestic campaign than Baines, he had a brilliant season in the Champions League and is always dependable in big games, something stats can’t quantify. The worry for United would be that Baines has never played in the Champions League or experienced big game international football which at his age could make a move more risky.

Tactical differences

Observationally I’d argue Baines does less one on one defending than the other full-backs as at Everton he is protected by a very defensive winger, usually Osman, as well as being covered by Distin when he roams forward. For Everton he is given much more creative license than the other full-backs who are forced to be more responsible defensively, which his lower number of tackles indicates.

Evra, Cole and Clichy get ‘dribbled more’ but this is likely because none of them have particularly good cover from their respective wide midfielders. Cole had Juan Mata for large spells who didn’t contribute at all defensively. In contrast Steven Pienaar played 12 times in the league as a left midfielder on returning to Everton recording 1.9 tackles per game in the process, which demonstrates how willing he is to assist Baines in his defensive duties. The other left backs are more exposed by attacking players in front of them. Their teams on the whole dictate games and thus commit more men forward than Everton, leaving all of their defenders quite exposed.

If Baines has Ashley Young or Nani in front of him he’d be far greater exposed than he is at Everton and thus might struggle to make the step up. At the top sides full-backs need to contribute both defensively and offensively but with less protection. The tactical role he’d play at United would thus be much different. What Baines does offer is a lot of technical ability and a great left foot; in fact he is probably the best attacking option of the left-backs in a pure technical sense. For example he had more key passes per game (2) than any of the other left-backs.

There is generally speaking a lack of quality full-backs in World football which is why teams tend to keep hold of theirs if they have one, or pay huge sums to get one. Real Madrid for example spent nearly £30 million for Portuguese full-back Fábio Coentrão. In this context, £15 million for Baines would not be loads even though it is more than United paid for Evra. The other alternative would be to scour foreign leagues for a potential cheap replacement but players like Evra don’t come about often. Jordi Alba for example only cost £11 million, the problem with buying British is that teams always have to pay over the odds.

Conclusion

Man United probably do need a left-back, however Evra has had a better season than many people would admit. His incredibly high standards have dropped but he is still playing at a very high level and is undoubtedly one of the best left-backs in the Premier League. Some competition would not do him any harm and United could do with the depth with the Da Silva brothers having injury problems and thus not adequately covering.

The lack of defensive cover Baines will have could leave him exposed defensively and may be too large a step up for him. Baines is a good left back but anything over £8 million, especially considering Jordi Alba was £11 million would be a huge amount of money. In an ideal world, United would be able to find a cheaper alternative abroad but left-backs are in short supply which could necessitate a move for Baines, especially now Fabio has been loaned to QPR.

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Stats are as always from whoscored.com

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7 Responses to A Statistical Look At Whether Man United Should Sign Baines

  1. Paul
    July 3, 2012 at 12:02

    I’m sorry but £8m for Baines would be scandlous. Look at Glen Johnson moving to Liverpool several years ago, he went for about £18m. With prices being far more inflated in todays market and with Baines being a better player plus despite what papers might tell you Everton are not in a desperate need to sell then anything below £15m would be a steal. Everton will not let Baines go for under £20m simply because a) they dont have to and b) if they did then finding a replacement would be very difficult.

    • July 3, 2012 at 12:05

      It is more meant in the context of how Jordi Alba was so cheap, also Evra was only around £7 million if I recall correctly. As you state though English players such as Johnson always cost more, in that regard £12 million is not so much for Baines

      • Chris H
        July 3, 2012 at 12:45

        Jordi Alba is a steal…as was Cantona for £1m…but Sebastian Veron wasn’t at £28m ?
        Its whatever the buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to sell for, but Moyes won’t be pushed around. He paid £5m for Lescott and got 5 times that much from City. Everton don’t need to sell him and Moyes would rather keep him so he won’t let him go for a song. Its been said that Everton are a feeder club for Utd and I believe Utd have first option on Baines that’s all as we got Gibson for £500k and that may have been part of the deal. We’ll see but I can’t see Baines going for less than £12m.

      • Daniel
        July 3, 2012 at 13:29

        Alba was on the last year of his contract and not keen to sign a new one. As a result Barce had a lot of negotiating power. In contrast Baines has a 3 year contract at Everton and has stated that he is happy there. For these reasons, as well as the inflated UK market prices, Baines would cost a lot more, not less, than Alba.

        • John Sager (@johnsager)
          July 3, 2012 at 18:49

          Not to mention Alba is from Barcelona and used to play for them before he got cut at a young age. It was inevitable he would go back if he had the chance. Valencia was lucky to get what they got.

  2. Fergalona
    July 3, 2012 at 12:25

    It doesn’t matter what Man U value Baines at, it certainly doesn’t matter what you value him at. Everton value him at around £20 mil. We don’t want to sell him even for that, he is a key member of our squad and is massively underated by those outside the club who don’t watch him every week. He would be very difficult to replace for us. Either stump up what we want for him or go and find someone who is for sale at what you consider ‘good value’.

  3. dannylyons
    July 3, 2012 at 18:30

    A very good article – thanks Amit.

    I’d like to draw attention to the line; ‘In contrast Steven Pienaar played 12 times in the league as a left midfielder on returning to Everton recording 1.9 tackles per game in the process, which demonstrates how willing he is to assist Baines in his defensive duties.’

    It’s quite wondorous that in modern football, the stat of nearly 2 tackles per game shows defensive prowess.

    That’s nearly one in each half! How times have changed.